Indian gold traders may drop 70% in the last quarter of 2013 from 255 tons in the year-ago time span and are anticipated to be half common grades at 500-550 tons next year if new trade directions are maintained, a top trade body official said on Friday.
To curb a record trade deficit, India enforced an import obligation of 10% on gold and tied trades for domestic utilisation to exports, conceiving scarce afford of the yellow steel and increase premiums to a record.
As an outcome, Indians have counted very strongly on vintage heirlooms and smuggled yellow metal to rendezvous marriage demand.
Bachhraj Bamalwa, controller at the All India Gems and Jewelry Trade Federation (GJF), said in an interview at the Reuters “Year 2014 appears to be a difficult one for the Indian gem and jewelry commerce so far as gold trades are concerned,”
Bamalwa added India, which may trade a lower-than-usual 700-750 tons in 2013, is unlikely to ease its trade principle or the culture obligation until the trade deficit is under control.
The World Gold Council (WGC) cut its forecast for Indian gold demand previous this month, forecasting the country could furthermore lose its crown as the world’s biggest consumer of bullion to China.
The WGC said Indian demand could be 900 tons in 2013, from its preceding outlook of 1,000 tons.
Bamalwa said, premiums for gold in India ascended to a record $160 an ounce above location charges this week. By the end of the quarter, they could have increased as high as $200 an ounce.
Under the government’s new directions, gold importers should export 20% of their total trades. Trading agencies such as banks and state-run businesses can convey in a maximum of two consignments of metal before having to furnish verification of trade goods, he said.
Jewelry trade goods, on which domestic imports are dependent under the new direct, have skidded nearly 55% to $3.95 billion so far this fiscal year, from April to October.
Falling trade goods will have a knock-on effect on future trades because of the ties between the two, which in turn will hurt household jewelers who should be seeing surging demand as the wedding time of the year gets into full sway.
The trade body strategies to approach the government to supply low-cost finance to jewelry exporters, against a 12-13% funding cost now. Its international competitors get financing at 2-3%.
Bamalwa said the government was “in no feeling” to rest its new trade duty rules, or its gold trade goods requirements until the present account deficit had been reined in.