Gold bubble

Gold price technical analysis 30 - May, 2013

We Can not argue that gold is a safe investment in times of economic crises and political tensions and the financial turmoil, violent Kalmtabat plaguing financial markets and cash at the present time, which yielded the developments reflect the implications of the unipolar world that produced in turn a new kind of crises.

The truth is that what is now speculative frenzy in the trade of gold does not reflect the prevailing concept historically about gold as a haven for investors looking for secure channel for their investments away from the speculative financial markets and the erosion of values ​​and purchasing power due to low prices, currencies, especially the U.S. Dollar.

By reference to some of the facts we must first be pointed to two facts aggression that characterized the gold trade in the past few months; first is double gold prices more than three times to rise from $445 an ounce in 2005 to a record close to the barrier of $1,900 an ounce recently, which coincided with reduced demand by 17% in the second quarter of the year 2011 from the same period last year, according to the World Gold Council, a large percentage is supposed to contribute to price stability at the very least, not the height of this big picture.

The second reference, it is that the purchase of currencies and gold bullion falls in Europe and the United States, while increasing in both China and India, noting that investors Europeans and Americans the most need for channels of safe investment because of debt crises and the decline in prices of stocks and bonds in European and American markets.

While it can be explained by the decline in capacity investment and growth in the West in the East, but that is not enough to explain the decline in demand for gold in the Atlantic and the height of the Asian continent in the emerging and still not achieved the highest growth rates in the world. Through these two directions contained in the report of the World Gold Council, it can be concluded that the «bubble» gold will not last for long, prices are gold intensified Sairha in the past few years, especially after the global financial crisis in 2008 and the subsequent collapses and debt crises could push the price towards more from rising, as suggested by some reports, prior to begin the process of correction.

With regard to the phenomenon of bubbles in general, it is noted to increase in recent years and the transformation of the world closer to the service economy based on financial transactions, especially in the West, The contract last alone There were three bubbles in a row, starting from the bubble in stock prices and inflating assets in securities and passing through the bubble of real estate and the twoended in the fall of the bank «Lehman Brmar» in September 2008. Since the speculation is one of the most important basics of the service economy based on the amplification of assets, it is the end of the bubble markets of finance and real estate, has turned speculators for gold and less oil, which is governed by considerations are complicated by the presence of the Organization of «OPEC» a key player in the global oil market. As is the case in the past bubbles, it was the media distinct role and dangerous in the generation of beliefs and encourage the buying and selling quickly for a profit fictional, Sometimes there is an onslaught purchases of gold from central banks.

Noted that of the purchases were mainly investment banks that are speculation, an essential part of activities, and other times, noted that despite the proximity of the gold price per ounce in 1900, this price remains less than the real price, meaning it is still trading at less than its true value! At the same time, the group of experts and decision makers, feeding the media with news and exaggerated expectations and writing reports do not reflect reality as it serves investment destinations, which he referred to many academics and researchers Almhnin neutrals in Europe and the United States after it has formed committees many to assess the causes of crises and bubbles previous . As results were very painful past bubbles.

The bubble burst of gold will be very harsh and the repercussions will affect investment much of the world, and especially the organizations that have large purchases of gold at inflated prices. Investing in gold, is the advice from the gold, but within the fundamentals of professional away from speculation and bubbles bubbles, which requires states and investors in general, be cautious and very careful in the coming period, Vdanassourat speculators difficult to break the thorn, and by virtue of their experience and their financial strength.

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