Bank ‘Saxo’ lowers its forecast for gold and silver prices

Burgin hunter is going to fix gold price or not?

The report emphasized the weekly Bank «Saxo», that while the increased dollar exchange rate, the commodity markets have lost support, especially precious metals like gold and silver, which was withdrawn , because both were thriving on the back of real returns negative effects of environment lower interest rate . The metal support a compromise for the U.S. budget.

A solution which will lead to the creation of a burden on growth during the first two quarters of the new year; However, the coming weeks will be tested at this stage seriously torque investors precious metals and as a result, we may have to reduce our expectations for the year 2013 on the average price of the two who settled now When 1840 and U.S. $ 34 per ounce, respectively.

Hansen said the first, head of commodity strategy at Bank ‘Saxo’: did not help performance – which best can be described is «nervous mood performance – during the first week negligent of the year 2013 due to the rise of the dollar by more than 1%. Currency traders extended long-term exposure to the euro, causing a sharp decline in turn to the rise in the dollar and thus create some early Headwind of goods with a loss born Jones USB Bonds of approximately 1%.

Industrial minerals

He added: was the only sector that has achieved a positive return, according to these indicators for industrial metals, such as copper, supported by economic data that continued to improve from China. It was the worst performance of the agriculture sector sectors with gains in livestock offset continuing losses in cereals and tropical commodities such as coffee, sugar and cocoa.

Precious metals also saw losses with a gold, silver and palladium all in negative territory. The energy sector was also in negative territory, because the gains in crude oil and products may offset by another heavy loss in natural gas.

And now reports U.S. unemployment now, more important, as every possible improvement in these figures will help to improve market expectations on when to stop quantitative easing. Did not occur December figures issued on January 4 – any significant impact, given the fact that non-farm payrolls were in line with expectations, while the unemployment rate has risen slightly to reach 7.8%.

Cliff collapse

Hansen continued: in the first week of the new year changed the U.S. financial abyss frightening crushed prices during the month of December to be replaced by what some choose to call ‘financial meltdown’. Where the concerned parties reached agreement on the U.S. budget at the last moment.

But with a lot of controversial issues and dispute such as finding the necessary funding – an issue yet to be resolved – the market remained in a state of instability and satisfaction, which means that the big recovery has lasted less than 48 hours. The U.S. president will face more financial wrangling with Congress in the coming weeks, as the debt ceiling will need to be lifted again, because the level of debt is still on the rise.

In the immediate aftermath, the Fed surprised the American market by expressing some radical views, he made in the report of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which was held in December to discuss federal policy. At this meeting, some members of growing concern about the side effects, such as financial stability and continued expansion in the balance sheet of the central bank.

Some members felt that it would be appropriate to slow down or even stop buying more assets before the end of 2013. This was the first sign of the function that the anxiety that has become increasingly feeling him out of the Fed for several months has become felt in the same Federal Reserve Board and makes the year 2013 years more interesting, as the markets will have to decode the blade implications of the shift away for cheap money.

Look at 2012

Hansen said: in respect of performance in 2012. Two main funds finished goods directly Almertbtan to stock index unchanged to a large extent this year, a disappointing result for investors who buy only compared with other asset classes.

And private equity. Resulted in major correction in grains such as corn, wheat and soybeans in December revenues discounted a lot for the grain sector, but still able to overcome the losses experienced in the commodity tropical such as coffee, sugar, cocoa, especially reduction of a third in the coffee, bringing the order total profits in the agriculture sector to the second place.

He added: Although recovery good witnessed various industrial minerals during the last quarter of the year, which was driven by improved demand forecasts China – ended sector overall in third place ahead of the energy sector, which suffered losses resulted primarily from the negative performance of West Texas Intermediate crude and gas natural, who lost 30 percent. At the top of the center we find precious metals is not because of the great individual performance, but more due to the fact that all four components made gains, particularly silver and platinum.

Precious metals

Towards the end of 2013 and were precious metals several obstacles, what makes this year in a possible shift after twelve consecutive years of positive returns. The most damaging thing is news on unease within the Federal Open Market Committee U.S. in relation to the duration of the current asset purchase program. Will help improve U.S. economic data continued to create expectations related markets on when to stop quantitative easing, and this will undermine confidence among investors in precious metals.

Gold and Go in the New Year inspired revival of the U.S. budget agreement, but within 48 hours fell to its lowest level since August 2012, and has since become the continuous slide of the peak price that it was in October almost $ 1,800 / oz.

The investors traded products in the stock market who solve them new year and they retain quantities record of gold – and who had used so far the correction to Irakmoha – withdrew on Thursday 327,000 ounces – the biggest decline occurs in a single day since 26 September, according to Bloomberg.

Hansen said the first: Technically, gold again returned to the area of ​​the 1630 dollars / ounce, rose a sudden rise in August after a few months of trading profile. This level coincided with the movement of its share price or financial paper unlike previous trend rate of 61.8% witnessed recovery from May to August.

The more than doubled below this level would the next area of ​​the Reserve price support at 1590 dollars / ounce. Insists investors and traders of gold and believe that higher prices during the year is about to face a major challenge in the coming weeks, because the current movement of stock prices may indicate that the big increase has become an investigator, a rise probably not seen again for some time.

He continued: at the moment although we continue to believe that the current move is just a correction, given the fact that the movements of the market during the first two weeks of the new year are often wrong. But if crash record for the lowest price for gold of $ 1525 dollars / ounce, we will face a new situation, and as a result we will have to reduce our expectations for the year 2013 on the average price of the two who settled currently at 1840 and $ 34 per ounce, respectively.

Crude Oil

Brent crude to the highest extent of the limits of its current supported by several factors, not the least of improved growth prospects in both the United States and China, despite the high dollar. Further support came from the continuing contraction in the spot market transactions, which saw premium deferred for crude oil in the spot market during the three months to move to 2.8 dollars per barrel.

OPEC production

OPEC production fell from oil in December to the lowest level in years, according to a Reuters survey. The decrease of more than 1.1 million barrels per day from a peak of production that we have seen in the month of April due to lower supplies from Iran, and now at the lowest level since 1988, because of U.S. sanctions and European Iran while cutting both Iraq and Saudi Arabia production amid slowing global demand.

This confirms the current state of the global market that looks well balanced and this would, if we exclude any geopolitical event, to keep the price in scope price in the near term. Apparently rising confined above $ 115 a barrel, while we can find support at 109.40 and 107.50.

The biggest drop for natural gas in 3 years

Led the abundance of natural gas in U.S. stores underground storage along with the launch of the reports in early January on the possibility that the milder winter to low gas prices into the abyss last Wednesday. Within minutes I got contracts February by about 9%, which is the biggest decline in three years adult 3.05 before restoring half of what he had lost.

With mild weather expected in the coming days, may be less demand for the seasonal base, thereby raising the potential for the existing level of gas in storage when the season starts pumping in two months. Helped high levels of natural gas in underground storage after mild winters the country has experienced in the last year on falling prices, before they lead a major shift from coal to natural gas to price stability. Will keep concerns about a repeat of what happened traders are nervously looking for changes in the weather during the coming weeks.

Sharp fluctuation in the prices of the yellow metal in trading last week

Specialized economic report said that the price of gold has fluctuated sharply in global markets during last week’s trading range between the highest level at 1694 dollars per ounce, the lowest level at 1630 dollars.

The report issued by the Company (Kuwait alloy) to trade precious metals that gold prices ‘staggered’ a lot during the week under the influence of the news coming from the U.S. and file (financial abyss), which has greatly impacted on the appetite of investors, whether buying or selling.

He explained that the rise in gold prices in the beginning of the week about 1694 dollars per ounce was associated with twice the value of the greenback and shift to safe haven liquidity stronger with the increase in demand to reap profits in the short term.

The report indicated that «the case turned upside down» in trading last Thursday, where rose the dollar exchange rate to the highest peak him against a basket of European currencies, especially the euro فهوى price of gold to its lowest level after breaking support at 1630 dollars per ounce, stressing that it is not commensurate with expectations of more pessimistic investors, especially as the prices were high early this week.

He stated that the price of gold used to climb with the beginning of every year, but what made him fall sharply is reporting U.S. official revealed the possibility of dispensing plans quantitative easing end of 2013 «Of course, such news be in the interest of the U.S. currency at the expense of precious metals».

The report said U.S. economic data played an important role in the descent of the yellow metal prices, especially if the labor market there could develop 155 thousand new jobs in terms of reducing the unemployment rate to 8 t 7 percent.

He added that confidence returned somewhat to the gold markets to settle at $ 1,650 an ounce in light of expectations consistently gains toward price $ 1700 in the coming months «because the U.S. economy is still suffering instability, even if it was agreed in part to postpone the solution Multi abyss financial» .

He explained that the silver was more severe in their movements for the rest of the precious metals, during last week’s trading as speculators took profits doubled after the rise of per ounce by 5 t 45% at the beginning of the week at 31.4 dollars.

He noted that Friday’s trading last seen falling silver prices towards the level of 29.4 dollars per ounce by falling 2% from the opening price and ended trading week at 29.9 dollars «and pour most expectations at heights more acute in the coming days especially that silver stray too far from the highest level achieved in April 2011 when the level touched 49 dollars per ounce.

The report indicated that the price movements for the rest of the precious metals improved significantly, especially the price of platinum, which closed on the price of 1557 dollars per ounce, up $ 38 from the beginning of the week prices either palladium leaving stable prices in little except to move closure at 686 dollars per ounce.