Spent the financial markets, including most of the goods in the week to recover from the sudden weakness experienced in the U.S. employment report, released recently, as U.S. stocks fell to their lowest level during the month was continued until the sudden contrast between the different countries in Europe. The gold has seen active again after the suspension of support and the emergence of predictions that can be up to $ 2000 an ounce by the end of 2012, while oil prices took most of the week to test the strength of support.
The report said the weekly Bank «Saxo»: The contrast-based performance to date between the DAX in Germany and in Spain IBEX surprisingly has now established at the 27% barrier. Now and shed light particularly on Spain in the light of European debt crisis, which lasted for a long time as the return on government bonds with ten years to 6%, which is an increase of 4% on the achievements of its counterpart in Germany.
The report added: In the meantime, the dollar maintained its position in light of support experienced by the euro and the dollar, two currencies are the most actively traded in global markets, at the forefront of the most important support level at 1.3 dollars per euro. The demand for the euro and the dollar selling that stock markets if confirmed the level of support to help recover some of the goods in the uproar caused by late this week.
He continued, however, the short-term outlook for global growth, especially in China, which saw growth during the first quarter, its lowest level in three years, indicating some laxity may contribute to the reduction of the maximum potential of the goods during the quarter. And contributed to the news from China in moving some of the sale of industrial metals, especially copper, which approached the prices in some cases, serious levels of support before jumping with the decline in the dollar.
Gold looks again
According to the report, found the gold market speculators themselves in the wrong place on several occasions during the past two months as the main driver of gold was continuing to talk about further liberalization quantitative in the United States. The weak growth in employment in the United States that has emerged recently to focus on again about the possibility of providing more liquidity, with get more support from GFMS, which is one of the major consulting firms in the world in the field of precious metals. The company forecast in a survey conducted by the gold in 2012 that gold may exceed $ 2000 barrier at the end of the year or early in 2012, before it reaches its peak during 2013.
The underlying causes
The report emphasized that the reasons behind the continued rise in prices after the decline experienced by well-known to all and is the concerns about the debt crisis of the euro area and the negative actual returns and expected further liberalization of exchange in the United States. The arrival of prices to peak in 2013 and will be followed by the increase which will happen as soon as you see prospects for higher prices in the United States in light of the ground. See the company GFMS also be an interesting continuation of the increased supply of mining and waste faster than the demand for jewelry and other materials, which give way to the investment center to receive the reins of leadership to push forward the request to. Also expects that also comes a time presence is not enough investors, which may give a signal to shift the market. Up the market to a minimum in the near term at 1530, but it will not happen to be achieved by the lack of risk scenario where gold could see further decline for a period of time.
The report said: Speculators technicians found abundantly enjoying the comfort of some of the high stability of the Mediterranean, which has seen a large movement over the 55 weeks at 1647 Vitzha way to support trend line at 1625 in 2008 without competition. It is not expected to occur in the coming days to stop any resistance at 1.697.
After high rise that followed the decline in prices in January saw a kind of industrial minerals “lukewarm” about the signals that have emerged from a slowdown in economic activity in China. After trading side since early February, things began to tend to turn a negative progressively during the last two weeks, which culminated in the report of the unemployed in the United States, which came below expectations last Friday, which also contributed to the reduction of aspiration towards economic activity and the consequent of the request.
China is the main culprit in this. Gave rise to the construction of large domestic stocks, which took place recently for goods related to the constructions, such as copper and iron concern about the degree of slowdown. Given the representation of China in recent years to more than 40% of global consumption and more than 50% of the growth in global consumption of key industrial metals, the outlook for this country indicate that in the near term will remain the key to developments in prices.
Decline in copper prices
Copper prices have fallen, the most traded metal, technically in London and New York with his aspiration now is to get support. However the list of concerns the difficulty of stabilizing the situation in China and the decline in economic data in the United States during the next quarter could see prices struggle raging in an effort to allay these fears.Technically, speculators looking forward to the support at U.S. $ 8,000 a metric ton on the «or the E» in London and 3.6 U.S. dollars to the pound on the «COMEX» in New York.
Reiterated the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter in the world, its emphasis on dissatisfaction with current prices above $ 120 a barrel. And in the words of the Saudi oil minister Naimi as saying that there is no shortage of supply with full stocks in the Kingdom and throughout the world. He added that Saudi Arabia is determined to reduce prices, stressing that it can produce more oil if required to do so, although it currently produces 10 million barrels per day, representing the highest level during the past three decades.
Also made the International Energy Agency all it can to limit the rise in oil markets when it announced that the oil market may break the cycle continued throughout the two years of the harsh conditions of supply.Agency believes that the growth of demand has collapsed when resorted to Saudi Arabia to increase production. Therefore, the question is: Where is all this oil go if it is not intended for consumption?
Agency believes that a lot of surplus oil is stored in the earth and the sea by many emerging economies, which has a low cover later, and therefore have an increase in the strategic reserves to protect against potential cases of confusion in the presentation.